The Marriage Decline is Economic, and So is the Fix
Geplaatst op 25-04-2024
Categorie: Lifestyle
It’s been clear for a long time that marriage is increasingly an institution favored by the educated and the affluent. While marriage rates have declined overall in recent decades, they’ve held steady for those with a college degree. In the most recent census data (2022), marriage rates actually ticked upward, owing to an increase among the educated.
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Pew Research suggested the driving influence might be economic:
“Is the uptick in newly married adults due to the national economic recovery that officially began in June 2019? It is certainly possible. There’s already a fairly vigorous debate about to what extent marriage and divorce are affected by economic activity. Some researchers have shown that marriage rates did not decline significantly during the Great Recession. And others have cautioned that it is difficult to conclude that the recession accelerated the retreat from marriage.”
In Falling Marriage Rates Reveal Economic Fault Lines, Andrew Yarrow further examines the trend. In 1960 education did not predict who was married – the rates were the same for those with and without a college education. Today 64% of those with a degree are married, compared to 48% for those with some college or less.
Ironically, financial insecurity is causing the less educated to delay or avoid marriage, even though marriage itself means greater financial security.
“This trend has opened up a yawning economic divide. Studies have shown that married women and men tend to be much better off financially than those who are unmarried, and that those who have fewer assets and more debt early on are less likely to marry or have stable marriages than those who are more financially secure.”
According to Ron Haskins, a marriage expert at the Brookings Institution:
“The connection between marriage and wealth is much more than additive. A 2022 study by the National Bureau of Economic Research found that the median 65-to-69-year-old married household had almost 10 times as much in savings as the typical single-person household: $111,600 compared with $12,500. It’s a plain fact that people who are married have more income, wealth and savings that last into their retirement.”
How does marriage make couples better off financially?
- Married couples are motivated to work toward financial security, and they incur less debt.
- One household for two people is far more efficient economically than two singles living apart. (This is why we see rates of cohabitation increasing.)
- According to Mr. Haskins, married men behave better:
“Married men are more likely to work, make more money and not engage in dangerous behaviors like drunken driving and committing crimes.”
There is disagreement among social scientists about whether those who get an education, marry and form stable families are naturally inclined toward planning and saving. It may be that the inclination is universal but seldom realized by those starting out with low wages and little hope of advancement.
Meanwhile, many wish to avoid marrying someone who brings the burden of large debts. Few women today marry for financial security and provisioning:
In 2023, the economist David H. Autor and Melanie Wasserman, a graduate student at M.I.T., found that, “Sharp declines in the earning power of non-college males combined with the economic self-sufficiency of women — rising educational attainment, falling gender gap and greater female control over fertility choices — have reduced the economic value of marriage for women.”
What is not happening is some sort of marriage strike, so you can ignore those unfounded claims. Neither men nor women are shunning marriage. Just 5% want to go through life single:
Among Millennials, more profess a desire to avoid marriage, but the number is still quite small:
“Nine percent of Americans aged 18 to 34 are unmarried and express no interest in marrying, but 56% of this group is unmarried and does want to get married. This high level of interest in marriage suggests there is little widespread attitudinal aversion to first-time marriage among the nation’s younger unmarried residents.”
And when we break the numbers down demographically, the number wishing to avoid marriage is small across the board. In fact, nonwhites with low earnings want marriage more than anyone:
Halting the marriage decline and reviving the institution of marriage will depend on:
- A robust economy over the long-term
- A decrease in the size of the wealth gap
- More educational opportunities without the burden of debt
- Job training and education in sectors where the American economy is likely to grow
The decline of marriage in the U.S. has nothing to do with hookup culture, females going to college or delaying marriage until their late 20s.
The data is clear: Millennials want to get married and have families. They want egalitarian relationships, regardless of gender or education level. Surely what’s left of the American Dream should include that.